Q&A to the Case www.WhyNewCoal.com

Some questions answered, which simplify the case and make it clear that New Coal Does not make sense.

- Coal is so important to our energy system, how can we let it go ?
- Doesn’t India have massive coal reserve’s?
- Wont we have nuclear to power India?
- Will we not have Clean Coal/ Carbon capture and storage?
- What about India’s development and economic growth?
- What is the Alternative solution?
- But renewable’s are so expensive?
- Who will pay for the expensive renewable’s?
- What happens if business is as usual?

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Coal is so important to our energy system, how can we let it go?

Indeed, out of the total electricity generation of India(700 billion kWh) coal contributes more than 75% of this – Coal has the biggest role in powering the entire country and the world.

But at the same time - it one of the biggest contributor to Global warming and is the single most important target, to avert the climate crisis. Coal is contributing to about 2/3rd of India’s CO2 emissions.

- James Hansen, the top NASA scientist, has stated that the ‘single most important action’ needed to tackle the climate crisis is to reduce CO2 emissions from coal’ – an opinion repeated by experts around the world. - Patz, J., et al., 2005. estimated that 150,000 people die each year from climate change effects, The UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Sir John Holmes, warned in 2007 that 12 of the 13 major relief operations that year had been climate related, and Professor James Lovelock FRS has warned that over 6 billion people will die this century due to unaddressed climate change.

- Coal has massive social costs, it is extremely hazardous to our health and the local environment. Alex Gabbard suggests that coal combustion is more hazardous to health than nuclear power. (Pollutants from Coal based electricity generation kills upto 170,000 people annually) – and coal sucks up critical resources of land,water etc

New Coal plants – will threaten india’s future energy security , economy and cause irreparable damage to the environment, people’s health and communities.

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Doesn’t India have massive coal reserves?

This is a misconception that we carry - Brookings energy security study for india says that “India is projected to run out of coal, its primary source of energy, in forty years.” CMPDI also puts the estimates for extractable reserves, in India between 30-40 years.

As the Sankar Committee and the Integrated Energy Policy reports point out - India does not have surplus coal, they say

1) India only has an estimated 56-71 BT of extractable coal, out of the 250 BT of geological resource and
2) There is a projected increase in import of non-coking coal, to meet the demand for power generation.

India is already importing 12% of the coal it uses, and Importing more coal will strain our economy.
New coal plants have a project life of about 50 years – and building new plants – India will not be able to supply the demand for coal and importing coal will only impose increasing costs on years to come and make India, more vulnerable to energy security and strain our economy.

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Will we not have nuclear, to power India?

Although the NSG deal is being cited as the answer to the country’s burgeoning energy needs, the fact remains that nuclear power only provides 3 per cent of India’s energy at present and this will rise to 7 per cent with all the additional nuclear power plants which the US, France and Russia, among others perhaps, will supply.

The Planning Commission itself has admitted the contribution of nuclear power to the total installed generating capacity by 2031-32 will be only about 5%. Nuclear power at best can produce between 4,000 to 40,000 MW (not even 10% of our electricity requirement)

At a time, when the world is tearing down nuclear plants, India has put in a lot of effort to sign the treaty, we question why do we not put that effort into renewables when they are the solution. According to Professor T Michael Kumar, Director, School of Mechanical Science, Karunya University “Although we have got nuclear deal it would take some time before the deal actually materializes in terms of electrical supply. Where as the solar energy is available, right now various ways of tapping the solar energy is possible. The cells are easily available and you can convert the solar energy into electricity and use it for various appliances”

Hazard to Life -
Nuclear reactors contain large amounts of radioactive material; this is an immense health hazard. India’s nuclear facilities reveals poor practices and routine accidents, ranging from leaks of oil to complete loss of power in a reactor causing all safety systems to be disabled. Although as yet in India, there has not been a severe accident – but there is a clear danger.

Cost -
Nuclear is not cheap as it has been portrayed, According to experts - when we look at the true cost of nuclear and add the cost of decommissioning the power plant (which takes about 15 years ) the cost becomes approx Rs 12 Rs per KWH - much more expensive than off the shelf renewables.

Not a Clean Fuel -
There are emissions during extraction of uranium and the decommissioning of the nuclear reactor. Nuclear hence is not truly clean.

India’s energy security
India is poorly endowed with Uranium; the most commonly used nuclear fuel. India will have to completely depend upon export to fulfill its nuclear

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Will we not have Clean Coal/ Carbon capture and storage?

“Clean coal’ is like a healthy cigarette,’” says Blan Holman, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Cente. “It doesn’t exist.”

BusinessWeek says “The catch is that for now—and for years to come—”clean coal” will remain more a catch-phrase than a reality.” The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) does not expect CCS to be commercially viable until at least 2050. Nor does Oil-giant Shell who “doesn’t foresee CCS being in widespread use until 2050.”

The NewScientist says that earliest possibility for deployment of CCS on a large commercial scale is not expected before 2030. CCS cannot deliver in time to avoid dangerous climate change.

Concerns about the feasibility, costs, safety, and liability of CCS also make it a massive gamble – one that risks taking attention and investment away from the deployment of renewable energy sources.

Costs -
CCS could lead to the doubling of plant costs, and an electricity price increase of 21-91%. The US Department of Energy (DOE) recently pulled out of the only “clean coal” pilot project with CCS technology in the US due to massive budget increases from initial estimate of $800 million to $1.8 billion.

Wasteful and Inefficient -
The technology uses between 10 and 40% of the energy produced by a power station. Wide scale adoption of CCS is expected to erase the efficiency gains of the last 50 years and increase energy consumption by one-third. Retrofits are very expensive and can carry such high efficiency losses that the plants become uneconomical.

Safety -
The world has no experience in long term storage of CO2. A 2006 United State Geological Survey (USGS) field experiment showed there is every chance that carbon dioxide will behave in ways that are totally unexpected. The researchers were surprised when the buried CO2 dissolved large amounts of the surrounding minerals responsible for keeping it contained.

A recent survey of Carbon Capture Journal by Greenpeace says “1,000 ‘climate decision-makers and influencers’ around the world revealed substantial doubt in the ability of CCS to deliver. Just 34% were confident that retrofitting ‘clean coal technology’ to existing power plants could reduce CO2 emissions over the next 25 years without unacceptable side effects, and only 36% were confident in its ability to deliver low-carbon energy from new power plants.
New Coal – with the hope of CCS is not a reality for years to come - Carbon capture will not be ready in time to save ourselves from the catastrophe.

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What about India’s development and economic growth?

Most definitely India must develop and grow economically and for that India requires a lot of energy to uplift the standard of living, of the 46% population in extreme poverty - who do not even have access to electricity, and deliver the much needed improvements in health, education and lifestyles that 100s of millions of people in India lack.

However, like the developed world, Majority of this increase is planned to come from coal - this economic growth is fueled by energy which presently is largely supplied by fossil fuels. India’s current pathway of development would lead it to becoming a major contributor to the already dangerous levels of carbon dioxide emissions.

Making coal the backbone of our Energy mix will not address the country’s energy concerns in a sustainable manner.

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What is the Alternative solution?

India has three fundamental things to do - according to experts, the country urgently needs to develop a Sustainable path of energy development:

1) Improve Energy Efficiency and Conservation
2) Develop and deploy Renewable energy
3) Modernize and expand “smart” grid

Energy Efficiency –
The overall efficiency in coal energy to electrical energy put into productive / economic use is in the order of about 10%, this alone provides a huge scope to increase virtually the net power availability by as high as 40 - 50%

Renewable Energy –

Solar - The energy in sunlight striking the earth for 40 minutes is equivalent to global energy consumption for a year. India receives solar energy equivalent to over 5000 trillion kWh/year far more than the total energy consumption of the country which is about 144 million kWh/year. Even if a small percentage of this energy can be tapped - it would have made our way to solving the energy and environment problem.

We can completely switch to renewables in the next couple of decades –
- The technologies exist
- The economics are favorable and the return on investment would be much greater

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But Renewable’s are so expensive?

High capital investment has kept renewable energy away from mass application. However, with
- Continuing innovation
- Economies of scale
- The introduction of reasonable price on carbon
renewable energy technologies very shortly, will become the most cost effective means of producing electricity with increasing fossil fuel price projections.

Climate Code red authors say that the technology of Solar Thermal is on the cusp of some remarkable breakthroughs, such that it is predicted to be cheaper than coal within five years.

Tata Strategic Management Group informs, capex required has been steadily declining in the sector, and could touch $2 per watt by 2010 and further down to $1.5 per watt by 2012.

Renewable Energy is cost effective when
-Considered on life cycle basis
-Environmental, social benefits are considered

The cost of renewable energy appears high, as Renewable energy is at disadvantage in the present framework of financial analysis.

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Who will pay for the expensive renewable’s?

1) Consider the true cost of Coal

“The true price of coal would be about Rs 11 KwH, from coal mining to generation in Jharkhand, India.” says Dr S.P. Ganchaudhuri, director, West Bengal Renewable Energy Development Agency (WBREDA) and special secretary, power dept.

In the present framework of financial analysis - We fail to calculate the externalities associated with coal - material cost, relocation cost, environment and social cost. When we do an independent pricing of coal - add the damage cost by coal to its existing cost - it becomes clear that coal is not economically feasible as against renewable energy technology that already exist.

The Ministry of Energy of Ontario found that the “true cost” of coal-based electricity was 4-5 times the “market price” - depending upon whether one valued a human life at $4 million or $5 million.

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Monetized costs of environmental damage due to Coal Power Generation
- WISE ( World Institute Sustainable Energy)

Estimated cost of damage - when CO2 is valued at 70 euros/tonne* -

• Estimated cost of damage due to CO2 = Rs.4.20 / kwh

• Estimated damage due to other externalities = Rs.2.77/kwh

o The total damage costs = Rs.4.20 + Rs. 2.77 = Rs. 6.97 / kwh

*Experts in Europe have estimated the range of CO2 damage costs as lying in the range 15 – 280 euros / ton of CO2 with a best guess value of 70 euros / ton.
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2. Co-operation with the Rest of the World

Knowing what we know now - about the harmful effects of Greenhouse gases, we need to find alternative means of energy and development.
India must
1) Design a speedy and effective plan for implementing energy efficiency and switch to renewable energy,
2) Calculate the cost of a low carbon growth pathway, and
3) Conduct an internal capacity analysis for the switch.

For the deficit India must work with other developed countries on
- Technology cooperation
- Capacity building

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What happens if business is as usual ?

If Coal continues to play a dominant role in India’s energy mix.(to the tune of about 75% - as at present). Coal-based power generation would have to ramp up about 6 times from the present 70,000 MW to nearly 400,000 MW generating about 3,000 billion kWh of electricity and

Coal Reserves –
India’s economically extractable coal reserves will well run out in 30-40 years. Coal mining and production would have to increase from the present 360 million tons to an excess of 2 billion tons - a daunting task, considering India even currently cant meet its coal demands from its own resources and exports.

India’s Coal Emissions –
India may be the lowest per capita emitter, but given its size it has a huge role to play, given 5% of the worlds CO2 emissions from fossil fuels come from India. India’s CO2 emissions would increase to over 5000 million tons, leaving the planet unlivable.

Coal Imports –
The present demand and supply gap is almost touching a high of 12% in India. India is already a net importer of coal – new coal generation would mean more imports which will seriously jeopardize our energy security and economy.

Coal generation takes up a lot of key resources which Even other sectors of economy like housing, industry, infrastructure etc. are competing for a fair share

Water - For every 1 KWH electricity produced, 4 litres of water is required.

Health - Coal is associated with a lot of health problems. Alex Gabbard suggests that coal combustion is more hazardous to health than nuclear power

Local environment - Coal power stations adversely impact the local environment, polluting the fresh water sources, and affecting the yield of agricultural crops.

Land and Forests- Most coal deposits in india are below or close to thick forests New Coal will demand sizable chunk of forests for buildings, coal and ash handling facilities, townships and transmission lines

It is clear that Coal is not a sustainable growth Option. But the Government of India has approved 213 new coal plants in the next 8 years.(Planning Commission). But these haven’t been built yet. We do have alternatives and we can develop in a sustainable way.

We face a crisis and we have to save ourselves from our own activity.
The Earth is not so weak, humans are the ones - who are vulnerable.

The economic, development, security, climate crisis we face today have same roots - and there is a simple solution in stopping fossil fuel use- which will renew our economy, provide opportunities and avert the climate crisis.

But making the switch to renewables is only the end result - we have to make a complete transformation in our thoughts and actions to truly save ourselves - or life will eventually face the consequences

This effort is to find that respect for ourselves and our surroundings and begin with a positive change from ourselves.

Take Action at www.whynewcoal.com